Hollywood Life Magazine

So, let’s pretend that the Producers Guild isn’t going to be the most predictable race of the entire year.  Here is EW’s Dave Karger on tonight’s showdown:

After finding itself completely left out of last night’s Screen Actors Guild Award ceremony, Avatar will need to reassert its awards-season dominance at tonight’s Producers Guild Awards. In the last 20 years, the PGA honoree went on to win Best Picture 13 times, a decent 65 percent success rate. Avatar doesn’t have a cakewalk to victory tonight—with District 9 and Star Trek both in the running as well, the sci-fi-spectacle vote could be split, leading to a win for The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, or Up in the Air. But the good news for Avatar is that this prize is (as the name suggests) voted on only by producers, so there are no pesky actors or writers in the voting body to grouse about the film’s relative weak points. If Avatar loses tonight, we have a real Best Picture race on our hands. But I’m not holding my breath.

Good plan, Dave. But I agree, should pigs actually fly and any film but Avatar win this thing, we do have a true race on our hands.  So far, in the big awards showdown, The Hurt Locker won the Critics Choice, Avatar has won the Globe. The Hurt Locker has shattered all of the critics awards, but, as we know, critics don’t vote for the Oscars.

Let’s look at the best contenders to win this, from most likely on down.

AVATAR
Producers: James Cameron, Jon Landau
Jim Cameron’s lifelong dream realized.  At $550 odd million, it has just sped past The Dark Knight (in five weeks) and is fast on its way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time (not adjusted for inflation).  Metacritic rating: 84 (in the Oscar zone).  An experience more than a film, Avatar is being seen as the game-changer animation/live action 3-D hybrid that is advancing the medium like no other.  It is a beautiful love story on top of that.  100% success.

DISTRICT 9
Producers: Carolynne Cunningham, Peter Jackson
The successful short film that was turned into a feature – one of the most entertaining films of the year.  Carries with it a message about racism, immigration and apartheid. Box Office total: $118 million. Metacritic rating of 81 (in the Oscar zone).

THE HURT LOCKER
The most critically praised film of the year.  The exact opposite of Avatar in every respect – up to and including its handling of its war message.  Avatar is escapist fare where we get to pretend that we were the good guys who helped drive out the money-grubbing invaders; in The Hurt Locker the war is portrayed as it is.  Unending, confusing, devastating to all involved.  Fantasy vs. realism.  Guess which one people wanted to see?   But producers sometimes can reward films that were made for the sake of making a good film whether or not Americans “wanted to see it” or not.  Box office total: $12 million.  Worth noting that the film was kind of screwed with release date — and that they deliberately did not hire popular movie stars for the role.   The Hurt Locker is a movie out of its time.  But it will routinely place on lists of the best films ever made.  It is no surprise that it won’t win — none of the really great films ever do. Metacritic rating: A whopping 94 (way above the usual Oscar zone)

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Producer: Lawrence Bender
Not quite sure what the critics were smoking when they reviewed this movie but I suspect it’s that Tarantino has joined Scorsese’s class, where the films have to be seen twice to be fully appreciated.  So you might say, why?  I should be able to get a film in one shot.  If you think that you’ll never understand why Citizen Kane is considered the best film ever made by a great many critics.
Box Office: $120 million.
Metacritic rating: 69 (slightly below the usual Oscar zone)

STAR TREK
Producers: J.J. Abrams, Damon Lindelof
Incredibly entertaining and successful sci-fi, considered a respectable homage to the original series.  Still, had a better chance at this award without Avatar.
Box office: $257 million.
Metacritic rating: 83 (in the Oscar zone)

And then the films that did well enough to be nominated but don’t really stand a chance of winning:

UP IN THE AIR
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.

PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
Producers: Lee Daniels, Gary Magness, Sarah Siegel-Magness

UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera

AN EDUCATION
Producers: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey

INVICTUS
Producers: Clint Eastwood, Rob Lorenz, Lori McCreary , Mace Neufeld

I asked a few folks to predict the PGAs but since everyone said Avatar it sort of seems like a useless exercise.  This award will be announced some time late tonight.  We expect and predict Avatar to take it home.

Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar

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